shadow stats australia
octubre 24, 2023Unemployment. If you are not a Subscriber, and wish to be, see the next paragraph. Despite a small monthly narrowing in the headline March 2023 Unemployment Rate, details remained consistent with an unfolding recession. January 2021 Producer Price Index Monthly Inflation Hit a Record, 10-Year High Australia's Government Strengthens Grip With By-Election Win. Those numbers are adjusted for inflation, using the Construction Producer Price Index. 1459. Measured against its Pre-Pandemic level, 4q2022 Real GDP had gained 5.03% [previously 5.06% and 5.11%]. The Shadow Economy - Reserve Bank of Australia According to a new study published by the Institute for Applied Economic Research at the University of Tbingen in Germany (IAW), the Greek shadow economy is estimated to average 21.5 percent of . Noted the by the U of M, Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices. [Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for the full details.] Annual growth in Payrolls has been slowing since February 2022. Go to https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/march-2023 for full detail. ShadowStats and the 'Alternate Inflation' Myth - US News That circumstance is reviewed in pending ShadowStats Benchmark Commentary No. [Posted May 1st, 1:00 a.m. Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary, Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. 1461. The Federal Reserve Overhauled Its Money Supply Reporting, Redefining Traditional M1 from 34.8% to 93.4% of a Not-Redefined Total M2 "John" Williams was born in 1949. March 2023 Money Supply numbers and historic tables have been posted and graphed to the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the Menu Bar above), with more extensive analysis, graphs and coverage following in the DAILY UPDATE e-mails and in pending Commentary No. Manufacturing Sector Has Never Recovered Pre-Great Recession Peak Levels The 2021 Financial Report is available here: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/current-report.html -- ShadowStats will provide extended analysis in an updated Hyperinflation Commentary, which will post subsequent to the pending Commentary No. Alternate Gross Domestic Product Chart. That revised February inflation of 16.1% was much higher than the year-to-year nominal growth of 5.3% in parallel February Construction Spending, resulting in an unrevised, inflation adjusted, real year-to-year decline of 9.5% (-9.5%) in February 2023 [See extended comments in later Note (16)]. At the same time, the Pandemic-distorted and disrupted year-to-year gain for February 2023 Basic M1 eased to 4.8% from and unrevised 6.2% in February 2023. Informal / Shadow Economy Size | By Country | 2023 | Data - World Economics Per the NAR Press Release, Existing-home sales retreated 2.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million. Separately, the inflation issue is complicated by independently rising gasoline prices, not by any overheating economy! Honkai: Star Rail Trailblazer build guide | PC Gamer ShadowStats' John Williams: Why inflation now is really 13.5% - KITCO October Industrial Production Continued in L-Shaped Recovery, With Annual Change Flattening Out in Negative Territory What are Shadow's specs? Such Was the First Annual Gain in Freight Activity Since November 2018, When Excessive Fed Tightening Was Being Used to Constrain Consumer Liquidity and Domestic Economic Growth By its very nature, the shadow economy is difficult to measure. For all readers, in general, if you have any questions or otherwise would like to communicate, please e-mail johnwilliams@shadowstats.com or call (707) 763-5786. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. ET). Pandemic-Disrupted U.3 Unemployment Effectively Was 9.0% in November 2020, Not the Headlined 6.7% L A T E S T .. N U M B E R S -- See the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE for the current FOMC coverage and detail of February and early March 2023 Monetary Conditions. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. When the Pandemic hit the U.S. economy and financial system hard in March and April 2020, the Federal Reserve responded with massive expansion of the Money Supply (eventually the equivalent of 23-years-worth of regular Basic M1 stimulus -- Systemic Liquidity). 1461. HEADLINE ECONOMIC, INFLATION AND MONETARY COVERAGE OF THE LAST MONTH AND OTHER KEY NUMBERS: (1) April 28th (University of Michigan). Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. Real Annual Growth in New Orders for Durable Goods Turned Negative, Amidst Renewed Slowing in Commercial Aircraft Orders Tax gap program summary findings | Australian Taxation Office PLEASE NOTE: In 10 days (March 24th), this Retail Sales Series will undergo an annual benchmark revision. Trailblazer builds: Strengthen your main character up. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. Alternate Gross Domestic Product Chart - Shadowstats.com Noted frequently here and discussed subsequent to earlier FOMC Meetings (March 22nd was the last), little has changed: The Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked the targeted Federal Funds Rate March 22nd by the expected 0.25%, to a 15-year high level of 5.00%, hoping still to induce an imminent Economic Recession, which otherwise already had been in play and deepening for some time, due to earlier rate hikes. Money Supply and Monetary Base detail follows in the later FEDERAL RESERVE Section and its SYSTEMIC RISK -- MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE coverage (just keep scrolling down), along with expanded material in conjunction with the updated Money Supply numbers and graph posted on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab of www.shadowstats.com (see the link above). Watch part 2 on hyperinflation: https://youtu.be/jzwU_UOwVMIUsing the same data collection and calculation methodologies as the Bureau of Labor Statistics us. Inflation is already in the double digits, according to ShadowStats' John Williams, and will still grow. That said, the aggregate series quarterly sales, have been in annual decline for each of the last seven quarters, up through the current 1q2023, in an otherwise deepening housing recession. Moving higher to a 120.5% of its Pre-Pandemic Level, from 119.8% in February and 119.7% in January, March 2023 Basic M1 still is shy of its August 2022 unrevised record level of 123.2%.